After a rough start to the year, the summer box office is playing catch-up (2024)

The summer box office is off to a lukewarm start.Last summer, blockbusters "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" combined added nearly a billion dollars to the domestic box office, according to Comscore data. But this year, studios are betting on a large slate of mid-range sequels and prequels, as well as family-focused animated films to fill the Barbenheimer-shaped hole, including "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" and "Inside Out 2."Coupled with production delays — the aftershocks of the multi-month-long Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes that are still reverberating across studios — the season that has historically drawn the biggest movie theater audiences is off to a rocky start, potentially hurting the yearly box office totals for 2024."Summer is the most important moviegoing season of the year, accounting on average for nearly 40% of the total domestic annual revenue, so as goes the summer so goes the year," Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, told CNN."Barring some major overperformances, this summer looks like it'll be down 20% to 25% in box office grosses between May and August from last year," said analyst Shawn Robbins, founder and owner of Box Office Theory.The elusive $100-million opening weekendUntil 2020, the period between Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day Monday could be counted on to bring in upwards of $4 billion in domestic revenue, according to Comscore data. Summer 2023 saw the first post-pandemic $4-billion summer.Propelled by the success of "Sound of Freedom," "Oppenheimer," and the record-breaking $155 million "Barbie" opening weekend, summer 2023 grossed $4.09 billion, a 19.2% jump from the year prior."Barbie" was distributed by Warner Bros., which is owned by CNN's parent company Warner Bros. Discovery.An opening weekend north of $100 million is typically only seen in intellectual property-driven action films like Star Wars movies and superhero flicks, as well as animated family fare like "The Incredibles 2" and "Finding Dory." So far this year, no movie has crossed that threshold."Sans a Marvel movie to provide a $100-million-plus opening weekend to get the momentum going, this summer will have to make up ground in June and July," said Dergarabedian, adding that this summer has so far been a "late bloomer." Disney offerings could make or break the summer box officeTwo movies that analysts say could cross the $100 million threshold this summer are "Deadpool & Wolverine" and "Inside Out 2," both of which are distributed by Walt Disney Studios.The studio's first wide release of 2024 under its flagship "Disney" banner is set to be "Inside Out 2," an anomaly for the company and the movie business, according to Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro, which collects sales and showtimes data from thousands of movie theaters across the United States. (Disney-owned 20th Century Entertainment released its first movie of the year, "The First Omen," in April.)"I can't think of any other year where a studio as vital to this industry sits out the entire first half of the year," Loria told CNN, adding that this is in large part due to production delays and schedule shifts caused by months of back and forth between studios, the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA, the actors' union. "We tend to overemphasize the effect of Hollywood's 2023 labor strikes at the box office, but it's hard not to cite it when you look at the number of releases to have hit theaters from major studios in the first half of the year."Disney has not responded to CNN's request for comment.Loria also emphasized that Disney's summer offerings, both from its Pixar and Marvel divisions, will be critical to how the 2024 box office performs overall."Inside Out 2" is forecast to open anywhere between $80 million and $100 million, according to Box Office Pro pre-sales data. Pixar's offerings in recent years have fallen flat; 2022's "Lightyear" debuted at $50.5 million domestically, while 2023's "Elemental" made $29.6 million its opening weekend.Meanwhile, "Deadpool & Wolverine," the only Marvel property release this summer, is expected to reinvigorate audience enthusiasm after "The Marvels" disappointed last November with a $47 million opening weekend.Last week, ticket seller Fandango announced that "Deadpool & Wolverine" had broken the company's 2024 record for best first-day ticket presales, beating out "Dune: Part Two." The film also had the best first day of ticket sales for an R-rated film in Fandango's 24-year history, the company told CNN."Deadpool & Wolverine has the potential to be the second movie (after 2021's "Spiderman: No Way Home") to earn a $200 million opening weekend of the post-pandemic era," said Loria. "We are still two months out, but if pre-sales and awareness continue at this pace, we believe the film can open between $170 million and $210 million.""Despicable Me 4" and "Inside Out 2" "look particularly strong, and 'Deadpool & Wolverine' will hands down be the top film of the summer," said Dergarabedian.Studios still trying to find their footingIndustry experts agree that the 2024 box office has been sluggish so far, but remain hopeful that the box office can rebound by the end of the year and beyond."Box office earnings have been down largely because of staggered gaps between widely appealing releases in the first half of the year," said Robbins. "That's been the status quo in the post-pandemic era for many reasons, mostly outside the control of theatrical exhibition. The industry had only a brief period between the impact of COVID production delays followed by the writers' and actors' strikes last year."Robbins added that there's still time for strong titles in the second half of the year to fill the gap, including September's "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" and "Transformers One," and October's "Joker: Folie à Deux.""Moviegoing habits have changed drastically since the pandemic, but we continue to see significant enthusiasm when it comes to the theatrical experience," said Loria. "The data clearly shows that audiences can still support the studio tentpole model — but identifying the movies that will become those blockbuster hits continues to be as difficult to predict as ever before."Box Office Pro projects that the 2024 box office will gross $8.2 billion, about 10% lower than last year's $9 billion. The domestic earnings for 2023 were the highest since the pandemic, but still fell roughly $2 billion short of pre-pandemic yearly sales, according to Comscore.

CNN —

The summer box office is off to a lukewarm start.

Last summer, blockbusters "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" combined added nearly a billion dollars to the domestic box office, according to Comscore data. But this year, studios are betting on a large slate of mid-range sequels and prequels, as well as family-focused animated films to fill the Barbenheimer-shaped hole, including "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" and "Inside Out 2."

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Coupled with production delays — the aftershocks of the multi-month-long Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes that are still reverberating across studios — the season that has historically drawn the biggest movie theater audiences is off to a rocky start, potentially hurting the yearly box office totals for 2024.

"Summer is the most important moviegoing season of the year, accounting on average for nearly 40% of the total domestic annual revenue, so as goes the summer so goes the year," Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, told CNN.

"Barring some major overperformances, this summer looks like it'll be down 20% to 25% in box office grosses between May and August from last year," said analyst Shawn Robbins, founder and owner of Box Office Theory.

A look at the blockbusters coming to movie theaters this summer

The elusive $100-million opening weekend

Until 2020, the period between Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day Monday could be counted on to bring in upwards of $4 billion in domestic revenue, according to Comscore data. Summer 2023 saw the first post-pandemic $4-billion summer.

Propelled by the success of "Sound of Freedom," "Oppenheimer," and the record-breaking $155 million "Barbie" opening weekend, summer 2023 grossed $4.09 billion, a 19.2% jump from the year prior.

"Barbie" was distributed by Warner Bros., which is owned by CNN's parent company Warner Bros. Discovery.

An opening weekend north of $100 million is typically only seen in intellectual property-driven action films like Star Wars movies and superhero flicks, as well as animated family fare like "The Incredibles 2" and "Finding Dory." So far this year, no movie has crossed that threshold.

"Sans a Marvel movie to provide a $100-million-plus opening weekend to get the momentum going, this summer will have to make up ground in June and July," said Dergarabedian, adding that this summer has so far been a "late bloomer."

The year of 'Barbenheimer': A look at 2023's biggest movies at the box office

Disney offerings could make or break the summer box office

Two movies that analysts say could cross the $100 million threshold this summer are "Deadpool & Wolverine" and "Inside Out 2," both of which are distributed by Walt Disney Studios.

The studio's first wide release of 2024 under its flagship "Disney" banner is set to be "Inside Out 2," an anomaly for the company and the movie business, according to Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro, which collects sales and showtimes data from thousands of movie theaters across the United States. (Disney-owned 20th Century Entertainment released its first movie of the year, "The First Omen," in April.)

"I can't think of any other year where a studio as vital to this industry sits out the entire first half of the year," Loria told CNN, adding that this is in large part due to production delays and schedule shifts caused by months of back and forth between studios, the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA, the actors' union. "We tend to overemphasize the effect of Hollywood's 2023 labor strikes at the box office, but it's hard not to cite it when you look at the number of releases to have hit theaters from major studios in the first half of the year."

Disney has not responded to CNN's request for comment.

Loria also emphasized that Disney's summer offerings, both from its Pixar and Marvel divisions, will be critical to how the 2024 box office performs overall.

"Inside Out 2" is forecast to open anywhere between $80 million and $100 million, according to Box Office Pro pre-sales data. Pixar's offerings in recent years have fallen flat; 2022's "Lightyear" debuted at $50.5 million domestically, while 2023's "Elemental" made $29.6 million its opening weekend.

Meanwhile, "Deadpool & Wolverine," the only Marvel property release this summer, is expected to reinvigorate audience enthusiasm after "The Marvels" disappointed last November with a $47 million opening weekend.

Last week, ticket seller Fandango announced that "Deadpool & Wolverine" had broken the company's 2024 record for best first-day ticket presales, beating out "Dune: Part Two." The film also had the best first day of ticket sales for an R-rated film in Fandango's 24-year history, the company told CNN.

"Deadpool & Wolverine has the potential to be the second movie (after 2021's "Spiderman: No Way Home") to earn a $200 million opening weekend of the post-pandemic era," said Loria. "We are still two months out, but if pre-sales and awareness continue at this pace, we believe the film can open between $170 million and $210 million."

"Despicable Me 4" and "Inside Out 2" "look particularly strong, and 'Deadpool & Wolverine' will hands down be the top film of the summer," said Dergarabedian.

Movies coming to theaters in May

Studios still trying to find their footing

Industry experts agree that the 2024 box office has been sluggish so far, but remain hopeful that the box office can rebound by the end of the year and beyond.

"Box office earnings have been down largely because of staggered gaps between widely appealing releases in the first half of the year," said Robbins. "That's been the status quo in the post-pandemic era for many reasons, mostly outside the control of theatrical exhibition. The industry had only a brief period between the impact of COVID production delays followed by the writers' and actors' strikes last year."

Robbins added that there's still time for strong titles in the second half of the year to fill the gap, including September's "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" and "Transformers One," and October's "Joker: Folie à Deux."

"Moviegoing habits have changed drastically since the pandemic, but we continue to see significant enthusiasm when it comes to the theatrical experience," said Loria. "The data clearly shows that audiences can still support the studio tentpole model — but identifying the movies that will become those blockbuster hits continues to be as difficult to predict as ever before."

Box Office Pro projects that the 2024 box office will gross $8.2 billion, about 10% lower than last year's $9 billion. The domestic earnings for 2023 were the highest since the pandemic, but still fell roughly $2 billion short of pre-pandemic yearly sales, according to Comscore.

After a rough start to the year, the summer box office is playing catch-up (2024)

FAQs

What is considered box office success? ›

A film becomes a box off of success when its ticket sales become significantly greater than its budget, including advertising costs. If everyone knew the answer, every movie would be a huge hit…. Obviously that's not the case. You can have the biggest stars, famous directors, huge budgets….

How much of the box office goes to the Theatre? ›

To determine if a movie made a profit, it is not correct to directly compare the box office gross with the production budget, because the movie theater keeps nearly half of the gross on average. The split varies from movie to movie, and the percentage for the distributor is generally higher in early weeks.

What is the biggest box office bomb of all time? ›

While John Carter is far from a poorly made movie and, in fact, does quite a few things well, it will forever remain one of the biggest box office bombs in history. At over $250 million in loss of revenue, John Carter rules both the red planet and the leaderboard of feature picture commercial catastrophes.

Has any movie ever grossed $1 billion? ›

Titanic became the first movie to gross over $1 billion worldwide on March 1, 1998, in 74 days of release.

What is the #1 best movie ever? ›

1. Citizen Kane (1941)

Who is the most successful box office actor? ›

Lead roles
RankActorWorldwide total
1Robert Downey Jr.$16,301,122,522
2Scarlett Johansson$15,432,591,515
3Samuel L. Jackson$14,376,505,937
4Zoe Saldaña$14,240,098,353
6 more rows

Who is the king of box office? ›

Follow Us
RankActorsYears
1Shahrukh Khan20
2Salman Khan20
3Aamir Khan20
4Akshay Kumar20
3 more rows

Do actors get paid for box office? ›

The United States & Hollywood

“Backend points” are a system we spoke about earlier that pays out a percentage of a film's profits. Some actors will also receive bonuses for their work if they are nominated for awards or achieve certain box office milestones.

Who makes the most money from a movie? ›

The Executive Producer tends to be the highest paying career in the film industry, as they typically control the project and oversee the financials of it.

Who gets the profits from a movie? ›

A studio might make about 60% of a film's ticket sales in the United States, and around 20% to 40% of that on overseas ticket sales. The percentage of revenues an exhibitor gets depends on the contract for each film. Many contracts are intended to help a theater hedge against films that flop at the box office.

How do directors get paid? ›

They receive a percentage of the box office sales of part of the entire film profits based on their contract agreement. A director may also earn money through royalties, which include proceeds from cable licensing fees, sales of first-run screening tickets, money from traditional television showings and DVD sales.

What movie flopped the hardest? ›

As of February 2024, the four biggest movie flops of all time were Disney productions. "Turning Red" (2022), "Jungle Cruise" (2021), "Mars Needs Moms" (2011), and "Mulan" (2020) recorded losses of more than 140 million U.S. dollars at the global box office.

Who loses money if a movie flops? ›

In the film and media industry, if a film released in theatres fails to break even by a large amount, it is considered a box-office bomb (or box-office flop), thus losing money for the distributor, studio, and/or production company that invested in it.

Which actor has the most F bombs in a movie? ›

So whose the king of the f-bomb? That would be Joe Pesci who has said the f word 271 times and it's a mind blowing fact but Pesci uttered the word 241 times alone in the 1995 film Casino. Pesci was born on February 9, 1943 in Newark, New Jersey and raised in Belleville.

What is the most money ever made on one movie? ›

With a worldwide box-office gross of over $2.9 billion, Avatar is proclaimed to be the "highest-grossing" film, but such claims usually refer to theatrical revenues only and do not take into account home video and television income, which can form a significant portion of a film's earnings.

What's the highest-grossing film in US history? ›

All Time Domestic Box Office
RankYearMovie
12015Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens
22019Avengers: Endgame
32021Spider-Man: No Way Home
42009Avatar
64 more rows

What is the world record for the most profitable movie? ›

Currently: The movie with the highest worldwide, unadjusted gross is Avatar (2009), with a total of $2.92 billion as of February 10, 2024. Historically: Considering inflation and population changes, other movies might have been more "successful" in their time.

What movie has the highest rotten tomatoes? ›

100 Movies lists, but there are many others and several entries with dozens of positive reviews, which are considered surprising to some experts. To date, Leave No Trace holds the site's record, with a rating of 100% and 252 positive reviews.

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