Saturday’s Feature Race - Churchill Downs
Race 11 - 5-2-4-9 | 1 1/8M | Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes 1M
The million dollar Stephen Foster Stakes is one of the premier races in the older male/handicap division, and if I’m not mistaken, the first of this year’s “win-and-you’re-in,” races to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The older male division is crying out for a legitimate challenger to National Treasure, who took the division by balls dusting a field of six in the Met Mile on Belmont day, and this race will likely provide a legitimate challenger wheeling out. It’s a very, very challenging race where I could honestly go six deep with contenders I could make at the very least an outside case for, but the key to any race is being decisive, and when it came to nut-cutting time there’s only one horse in this field I can be decisive on, and it’s not the one I thought it would be when I started handicapping this race on Monday.
5 Dreamlike (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) is 1 for 9 with his only win coming in a runaway at odds on breaking his maiden at the opening weekend of Saratoga last year. He came into that race off a strong effort for a maiden in the G2 Wood Memorial pressing the pace and hanging in for a narrowly-beaten third, and he wheeled out of his win to place in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby and the G3 Blame in his most recent start. He also took a turn in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and while he never really threatened the race, he did flash the tiniest bit of spunk in the lane. Overall this is a classy son of Gun Runner who clearly hasn’t hit his best level yet. Visually you could argue his last two recent efforts at 4 have been a bit disappointing, but Thoro-Graph has his numbers and pattern staying very tight. The key today is that Todd Pletcher puts blinkers back on. Not only is that a 20% win angle for his barn, but this guy seems to be crying out for blinkers and ran his sharp Wood and maiden-breaker in blinkers. A stumble caused him to misfire out of his maiden win and it was only after that mishap that Pletcher removed the blinkers. He ran well in the PA Derby and the rest was history, but after hanging a bit in the lane in each of his past two races, this feels like the right move at the right time. I expect he’ll get some pace to close into, and Irad is almost certain to work out a measured stalking trip.
2 First Mission (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) is an imposing favorite coming off his win in the G2 Alysheba in the slop on Kentucky Oaks day. Four of the past five winners of the Stephen Foster have come out of the Alysheba, and I don’t think anybody would be surprised if this son of Street Sense sporting the Godolphin colors made it five in six. He’s obviously well-experienced over the track and he seems to have put his puzzling no-show in the Pegasus behind him with two strong wins both of which came back as negative TG numbers. The question for this short-priced favorite is distance as he’s a perfect 4 for 4 at 8.5f, but just 1 for 3 stretching out to today’s 9f. Geroux was able to get him home against weaker in the G3 Essex Handicap at Oaklawn, and he should draw well for a ground-saving trip, I just wonder if there won’t be someone to come barreling down on him when he’s getting a bit leg-weary.
4 Disarm (Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario) was the 4YO son of Gun Runner that I originally anticipated going with when I started this process. He did nothing, but show class as a 3YO running a very-game fourth in the Kentucky Derby before going to win the G3 Matt Winn, run competitively in the G2 Jim Dandy and a very strong second in the G1 Travers. His debut as a 4YO essentially turned into a paid public workout as he ran against type galloping on the lead before digging in and showing some tenacity in the stretch to win. I absolutely think this one has a forward move coming as a 4YO, I just wonder what type of trip gets it done for him today. If he can track like he did in the Travers, Rosario will give him a huge chance. 9 Skippylongstocking (Saffie Jospeh Jr./Jose Ortiz) proved me wrong in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap beating a competitive field with relative ease securing his fourth win at today’s 9f distance. Like First Mission, he’s proved that his Pegasus mishap was a fluke, and overall he’s just as strong of a favorite as First Mission is at a better price than First Mission will be. My question for Skippy is his desire to engage in the pace coming from the outside post. He doesn’t need the lead, and he proved at Oaklawn he can stay measured stalking from a wide position, but he figures to face much tougher today. Based on his TG numbers, he’s a major contender, but he also rarely moves forward off his best effort, something he may need to do today if he’s going to get that G1 win.
This is a very tough race, and given the amount I have to do today (handicap a full BAQ card and see Bob Dylan at the beach, one is not more important than the other), I don’t anticipate playing the multi-race sequences at CD, so there’s a chance I play this race as something of a key around Dreamlike. I used this strategy to great effect in the Pegasus when I was keying on Senor Buscador only for him to run second to National Treasure, and I think this could be a race to fire something like that again. I’m thinking something like:
5/2,4,9/1,2,4,7,8,9
2,4,9/5/1,2,4,7,8,9
With a solid win wager on 5. Who knows, given the odds board, maybe I just screw the takeout and ride or die with Dreamlike, but my strongest opinion is that I think he runs a big race today. It wouldn’t suck to get paid if that was only good enough to be second by a neck to another horse I respect.
Belmont at Aqueduct
Race One - 3-6-4-1 | 6f | Claiming 12.5k
3 Hot Rod Rumble (Wayne Potts/Ruben Silvera) drops off a claim and should be the controlling speed off of an effort where he attempted to set a pretty fast pace and took pressure in the early stages. Two back he won easily for David Jacobson against slightly tougher competition and this one has picked up a little bit of a zig zag tendency that’s trending towards a strong race. 6 Hatch (James Ferraro/Luis Rivera Jr.) got himself back into form after getting caught in a tough allowance race two-back and should be fresh heading into this spot off a two month layoff. His workouts have been strong in the interim and he did break through to win at 6f three-back despite a career 1 for 11 record at this distance. 4 Victorious Wave (Rick Dutrow/Manny Franco) is another dropping first off a claim and while I’ve said that I don’t question moves by Dutrow, this one is a little hard to wrap your brain around as he claimed this one in May for 40k and wheels him back today for 12.5. This gelding is capable of big efforts getting himself into strong form for Rob Atras and seeing that carry through last summer off a claim for Chris Englehart, but it looks like he’s taken a sharp decline since winter and it’s a little hard to see what the game plan is today; kinda feels like Dutrow is just trying to churn this one back out. 1 Writer’s Regret (Tom Morley/Katie Davis) has been a bit out-classed in his past two races for Owen Garber, but he moves over to Morley off of a run against non-graded stakes horses at Finger Lakes and does own five career wins at today’s distance. This feels more like one to play back, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him shape up and run well today.
Race Two - 1-2-5-3 | 6.5f | Claiming 16k [n2L] (3YO+)
Tough race with what looks like next-to-no pace signed on, so this could be a battle of who can make to the front end the fastest. I don’t love taking the favorite in these spots, especially one with no recent form, but 1 Badlands Ruler (Robert Falcone Jr./Manny Franco) always seems to engage himself in the pace and draws the rail with one of the strongest riders in the NYRA colony. This 3YO gelding found himself a little outclassed last time out in allowance company at Churchill, but he’s run well against 50k OC’s here at AQU and today drops in for a 16k tag with two straight bullet works leading in. 2 Heard On Thestreet (Wayne Potts/Ramon Vazquez) looks to be the other horse in the race with some legitimate gate speed, and at his best he can make a sturdy mid-race move that should be challenging for the favorite to deal with, but like the favorite he too has no recent form coming into his second start for Potts shifting over from David Jacobson. 5 Retail Man (James Ryerson/Dylan Davis) is yet another in this field wanting for form, but another who has been trying tougher levels most recently running in the NYSS on turf in a race where he never really had much of a chance. Ryerson actually has decent numbers going from turf to dirt, and I say actually not as a knock, only due to the fact surface moves can be a bit random. 3 Midnight Express (Rudy Rodriguez/Ruben Silvera) is one of the few in this field who has a decent race in his past two finishing second two-back against similar claimers at AQU. He’s done okay for himself since graduating from statebred maiden claiming, but he hasn’t shown gate speed in some time and probably can’t afford to be left in the dust in this field.
Race Three - 4-2-1-6 | 6f | Claiming 20k
The mascot and patron gelding of Sports Works returns as 4 Colonel Vargo (Orlando Noda/Lane Luzzi) returns first off a claim for Noda. Last time out my future backyard gelding got himself back into form second out for John Toscano Jr., wiring a field of 12.5k claimers and he looks to be the controlling speed once again in this spot. He is moving up to take on 20k claimers after spending most of the winter and spring running the bottom of the ladder, but he’s shown tenacity at almost every turn and I won’t be trying to beat him in this spot. 2 Bustin Shout (Rudy Rodriguez/Ruben Silvera) never gained much traction in three starts for Wayne Potts though he was able to pick up a check three back against tougher than he’ll face today. He comes into this spot first off a claim for a Rodriguez barn winning with 19% first out claimers and this is a re-claim for him. He’s been given a freshening laying off since the first Saturday in May and Rodriguez has gotten a winning effort out of him before, but they will need to track closer to the pace if they want to win here. 1 Bronx Bomber (Mertkan Kantarmaci/Manny Franco) struck me as in interesting long-shot as fate figured it was fair and balanced to draw Manny on the rail in back to back races with a speedy horse. This one hasn’t won in quite some time, but his form as an 8YO has actually been decent setting the pace in a couple statebred claiming races. He does have four wins at this distance and drops in class from 25k claiming. 6 Sagamore Mischief (Oscar Barrera III/Danilo Grisales Rave) has no recent form, but does have speed to contend with the favorite taking a drop down from 32k claiming. A definite pace presence who occasionally runs races that make noise here.
Race Four - 7-2-6-3 | 1M | Allowance 80k [n1x] (3YO+)
7 Vettriano (Brad Cox/Manny Franco) is normally the type of favorite I try to beat, but this 3YO colt just makes too much sense in the context of this field where many of the more experienced horses have had a bevy of chances to prove their worth against winners. Moving from Chad Brown to Cox after an underwhelming debut at 2, this guy came back in mid-May for his 3YO debut and rolled over a maiden field at this track. Now second off a layoff and second time on lasix this guy could be looking at a step forward though he will have to prove he wants a route of ground as a favorite. I’d lean towards 2 Russian Realm (Danny Gargan/Katie Davis) given how I hate asking a favorite to do something new for the first time, but his guy just hasn’t shown the gate speed I’d like to see in either of his first two starts. He’s another moving up off his maiden win, though his win was less visually impressive than that of the favorite, but what strikes me is Gargan has an excellent resume with last out winners delivering at 27%. 6 Boys Code (Linda Dixon/Jacqueline Davis) is just 1 for 19 lifetime which sums up a lot of the experience in this field, but this one does bring solid form into this spot having picked up a check in four of his past five and seven of his past 10. He generally comes with a strong late-race move which may be a tough ask in this field, but he’s a strong underneath candidate at what should be a solid price. 3 Bad Larry (Wayne Potts/Abnel Bocachica) has three lifetime wins all at AQU and a fair number of races that could win in this spot, but I question his abilities some at this distance as he’s typically been a 6f specialist.
Race Five - 2-9-8-6 | 6f (TURF) | Maiden Claiming 40k (3YO+)
2 Art of Courage (Horacio De Paz/Kendrick Carmouche) was a bit flat last time out not showing his characteristic speed nor finishing with the punch that he had been displaying since getting onto the turf, but today he drops in for a claiming tag for the first time for a De Paz barn that tends to be sharp when shifting from MSW to MC. This guy has plenty of speed and could control with the addition of Carmouche only being a benefit towards getting a savvy, aggressive ride. 9 Nano Man (John Kimmel/Manny Franco) hasn’t gotten the results that Art of Courage has, and he won’t be saving the ground that his rival figures to be, but he does have a very strong race on debut as a 2YO going 5.5f against open maidens, his best race to date. His pedigree suggests he should be able to handle the 6f and dropping to MC could be what the doctor ordered. 8 Spoken Bluntly (Bruce Levine/Trevor McCarthy) hasn’t been particularly menacing in any of this three starts, and he’s actually taken a step back since joining the MC ranks, but that backslide in form has also coincided with his shift from synthetic to dirt, and I like that he ran much better in his one run on all-weather down at Gulfstream. 6 Price Is Truth (Christophe Clement/Dylan Davis) is 0 for 6 against statebred MSW company, but Clement is a crisp 24% shifting from MSW to MC and his numbers removing blinkers are an eye-catching 33%. This one has shown gate speed in the past, though he tends to adapt more of a tacking position on the grass.
Race Six - 7-6-3-4 | 1 1/8M | Claiming 12.5k
Tough race wheeling into the G3 Manila as the programming gods once again find a way to create tricky betting propositions in what figure to be their deepest pools. I don’t love it, but I’m taking a shot with 7 Disappearance (Oscar Barrera III/Danilo Grisales Rave) moving up off an 8k claiming race at Monmouth which was one of those “non-winners of four except horses that have won races on a Saturday with a temperature over 65 degrees,” races we all love down at the Jersey Shore. I don’t love that he moves up off a moderate win, but I’m thinking that win may be a bit better than it appears as he swung from a 5w position on the far turn to show a pretty explosive kick. Barrera hasn’t been having his greatest success at this BAQ meet, but he’s a solid trainer who wins at a 17% clip repeating claimers. 6 Valenzan Day (Michelle Nevin/Jose Gomez) comes in as the favorite and I certainly acknowledge he can win in what doesn’t look like the strongest field, but he’s never gone 9f in his career and I’m a little suspect of him going this distance having much more of a 6-7f sprint pedigree. He has the ability to win at a mile, but I’m a little against him going two turns though he should be the controlling speed. 3 Goldini (Wayne Potts/Ramon Vazquez) went out of form in two starts off a claim for David Jacobson, but his form had gotten tight in the winter for Rudy Rodriguez and he could get back to his better races first time out for Potts. He should sit a nice stalking trip and does have a win going 9f in his career. 4 Winning Connection (Orlando Noda/Abnel Bocachica) has seen his form dip off a cliff this year, but he’s also had some excuses faltering three back chasing a slow pace and then faltering again last time out after appearing rank through the early stages. Generally his best races have been going longer, so I won’t knock anybody for taking a shot at a square price.
Race Seven - 6-5-2 | 1M (TURF) | Grade 3 Manila Stakes 250k (3YO)
This is a very intriguing running of the Manila, made infinitely more interesting by the entry of 6 Deterministic (Christophe Clement/Dylan Davis), a once-promising Triple Crown contender who fell apart when trying to win the G2 Wood Memorial and G3 Peter Pan over this track. He burst on the scene going a mile in the slop in the G3 Gotham and showed the ability to work through trouble grinding through a fairly harrowing debut for a first time starter to win in his lone start at 2 at Saratoga. The jury is out whether or not he’s going to be a grass runner or not, but I can’t argue with Clement trying something new with this guy who just seemed to lose his mojo going two turns. I couldn’t take him if he happened to be the favorite on name recognition, but I do think he’s the horse to beat in the event he takes to the surface. I thought 5 Please Advise (George Weaver/Eric Cancel) ran a bit better than it looks in the Penn Mile as he pressed wide into a fast pace after checking noticeably at the start. He faded a bit in the stretch, but not badly, and he gets back to Weaver full time who has since returned from his suspension. He’s run competitive races against non-graded stakes company at 2 and could improve third off a layoff. 2 Drunk On Sake (Mertkan Kantarmaci/Silvestre Gonzalez) is my zag for the day as the long-shot in this field who could be the controlling speed based on style with the scratch of Mattingly. I’m not sure he can hold, and I’ll admit I’m not well-schooled in the riding tendencies of Gonzalez, but if he can give this one an aggressive ride he’ll have a chance to hang on for a piece at a usable price.
Race Eight - 2-4-8-1 | 6f (TURF) | Allowance 100k [n1x] (3YO+)
I thought 2 Cynane (Tom Morley/Kendrick Carmouche) was interesting at a very appealing ML price of 12-1 for a filly who could be the speed of the speed drawn inside in a turf sprint. Her recent form leaves some to be desired, but she’s been aggressively spotted after breaking her maiden, moving to Royal Ascot last year before trying non-graded stakes company at Keeneland and here at AQU to round out her 2YO campaign. Today she’ll come in second off a layoff for a trainer winning 20% with a +1.11 ROI in such conditions and overall Morley is firing at a sturdy 23% for the meet. She’s working well and Kendrick should be aggressive with her, so she checks enough boxes to be a shorter price than 12-1, but I think a value nonetheless. 4 Kerry (Joe Sharp/Dylan Davis) was well-bet last time in a similar n1x allowance race and she was square enough to recover from a sloppy break to get up for second, but the race also came back fairly slow. I wasn’t in love with her at a short price, but there are things to like. Sharp is 19% third off a layoff as this one is today, he matches that rate with beaten favorites and he’s got this one working very well. 8 Proud Mary (Mark Hennig/Jose Lezcano) comes in second out for a Hennig barn that’s an uncharacteristic 0 for 17 for this meet, but he’ll saddle Lezcano for this mount who does a great job getting strong performances by more sustained types. I like the speed to hold with this being a turf sprint, but I expect this one to be rolling late (sorry, I couldn’t help myself). 1 Reflexivity (Mike Maker/Manny Franco) was last seen at Kentucky Downs last September where she was a game third-best in an n1x allowance race wheeling out of a try in the Galway where she was overmatched. It’s hard to know what she’ll do first off this long 9+ month layoff, but she has the advantage of moving from 3 to 4 which can bring about some serious improvement in turf horses.
I have to be somewhat brief with the final three races because I’m a little pressed for time.
Race Nine - 7-4-1-6 | 6.5f | Optional Claiming 80k
7 He’smyhoneybadger (Linda Rice/Kendrick Carmouche) looks like he could get a strong pace setup coming in first off a claim for Linda Rice, with 4 Subrogate (Jorge Duarte Jr./Jose Lezcano) and 1 Repo Rocks (Rick Dutrow/Ruben Silvera) setting up to potentially press each other every step of the way. 6 Howgreatisnate (Dutrow/Manny Franco) makes his first start since a fractious performance in the Haskell, and this could be the next classy runner to move over to Dutrow’s care and improve, but I think he may need a race to get himself into fitness.
Race 10 - 7-9-1-3 | 1 1/16M (TURF) | Optional Claiming 35k (3YO+)
7 Yo Daddy (Linda Rice/Jose Lezcano) was a bit tough to handle in the early stages at Saratoga last time out, but he flashed the class that caused Rice to claim him in the stretch making a menacing bid. Feels like the type who should run back with a good effort today. 9 Jhirsch (Graham Motion/Manny Franco) broke through running first time for a MC tag last time out and did so impressively; not sure he’ll be ready to step up to a solid group of OC’s off a maiden claiming win, but Motion does return 19% last out winners to the winners circle. 1 Addicted to You (Horacio De Paz/Kendrick Carmouche) gained ground in spite of a wide trip last time out and should improve third time out off a long layoff. 3 Just for Luck (Mike Maker/Ramon Vazquez) has gotten himself in strong form down at Gulfstream Park taking steady steps up the allowance/claiming ladder since breaking his maiden at the end of 2023. Maker has been firing a lot of winners lately, but less so here at BAQ.
Race 11 - 8-9-5-6 | 1 1/16M (TURF) | Optional Claiming 35k (3YO+)
8 Willintoriskitall (Jose D’Angelo/Romero Maragh) comes in second off a layoff and gets back to his preferred surface despite running a decent second in an off-turf race last time out in his first start at 4. Now he gets to try turf having never run worse than fourth on the grass and he should sit a nice tactical trip with a handy rider. 9 Front Man (Mertkan Kantarmaci/Silvestre Gonzalez) looked sound first out off a layoff last time out and came out of that spot working well. Another who should show tactical speed and was bet to odds-on upon return last time out. 5 Relate (Rudy Rodriguez/Ruben Silvera) hasn’t raced since being trained by Todd Pletcher last summer, and his workouts suggest this may just be a tune-up race for him, and that lines up with Rodriguez’s general tendency winning just 5% of his first starts with new trainees. Still this one has multiple races that can win in this spot and is another who should be running early. 6 Shadizaar (George Weaver/Shannon Uske) makes his first start for a Weaver barn currently winning at 26% under such conditions and this one should have that closing kick to utilize should a pace duel ensue up top.
